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Prediction for CME (2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2024-05-19T14:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31032/-1 CME Note: Thin, faint CME seen to the east in all coronagraphs. The source is not too clear, but may be associated with an M1.9 flare from AR 3685 that peaked at 2024-05-19T13:44Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Some weak field line movement is observed at this time of the flare in SDO AIA 171/193, and dark filamentary material is seen rising along field lines after the flare occurs and correlates to the start time of the CME in coronagraph imagery. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a drop in temperature and rotation of two magnetic field components; at 05:55Z there is the beginning of a drop in temperature. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-22T05:40Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-22T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Prediction Method Note: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-20T18:17:12Z ## Message ID: 20240520-AL-002 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows: 1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. Start time of the event: 2024-05-19T14:23Z. Estimated speed: ~524 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 14 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): -35/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001 2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. Start time of the event: 2024-05-19T19:09Z. Estimated speed: ~584 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): -32/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001 Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-22T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor). Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001 and 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001): http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240519_204000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif ## Notes: The CME event with ID 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001 is associated with M1.9 flare with ID 2024-05-19T13:37:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13685 (S10E35) which peaked at 2024-05-19T13:44Z. The CME event with ID 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001 is associated with M2.5 flare with ID 2024-05-19T17:47:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13685 (S10E33) which peaked at 2024-05-19T17:56Z. SCORE CME typification system: S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s C-type: Common 500-999 km/s O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer Data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it "as is". Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property. The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.Lead Time: 35.38 hour(s) Difference: -17.33 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-05-20T18:17Z |
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